College Basketball Betting Strategy. As mentioned earlier, there are dozens of betting systems for college basketball, and not all of them are created equal, most of them work for certain teams,. Key Numbers – Looking at the key numbers for college basketball betting an when it makes sense to buy points. Spread to Money Line Conversion – Comparing expected money lines to actual historical.
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College Basketball Power Index Betting System
By Adam, NCAA Basketball Handicapper, Predictem
By Adam, NCAA Basketball Handicapper, Predictem
There is a betting system for college basketball and it requires using data called the Basketball Power Index (or BPI). These stats are numbered 1 through 100, with 100 being the best, and are calculated using wins, pace of play, scores, venue, player injuries, and strength of schedule to basically quantify how good a team is. You can find them for the teams in the previous season on ESPN.com.
What we want to focus on is the average opponent’s power index (AOPR) for our given team(s). We do this by averaging out all of the Indexes of the opponents the team has played. Also called AOPR (average opponent player rating) or a variation of strength of schedule, this number can be found in a variety of places including sportsbooks, albeit they sometimes use a different index for the rating, but it will still be on the 1-100 scale so you can experiment with your sources.
We will also need the average points scored for and against the teams we are evaluating. These can be found in most places or easily calculated by adding up the scores and dividing by the number of games played.
The first step is to divide the higher AOPR of the teams in your matchup by the lower team’s AOPR. This produces in effect how much harder the higher team’s schedule has been and will be a small percentage. For instance, let’s say Rutgers has an AOPR of 90 and Villanova has an AOPR of 81. 90 divided by 81 equals 1.11, so Rutgers has an 11% harder schedule than Villanova.
Next, we take each team’s average points scored for and divide it by the median score in all of college basketball (use 71 points). If Rutgers scored an average of 68 points, we divide 68 by 71 to get .958. If Villanova scored an average score of 76 points, we divide 76 by 71 and get 1.07.
Now, since Rutgers had a harder schedule, we increase their rating we just calculated by 11% and get 1.064. For Villanova, we decrease their rating by 11% and get .952.
Finally, to get our anticipated points, we need average points allowed for each team. Then we multiply the preceding numbers by average points ALLOWED by the opponent we are looking at. For Rutgers, assume Villanova allows 70 points. We multiply 1.064 by 70 and get our predicted score of 74. Assuming Rutgers allows, say, 65 points, we find Villanova’s anticipated score by multiplying 65 by 1.07 to get 70 points. The anticipated score is Rutgers 74 - Villanova 70. But there is one last thing we must do, which is account for home team advantage. To do that, add 2 points to the home team and subtract 2 for the away team. If Rutgers is home, we can anticipate a score of Rutgers 76 - Villanova 68.
As with all betting systems, do not see it as foolproof, and never bet over your head. Also, they are more indicative of success the larger the sample size is, in both data, and bets made using the system. So it actually pays off (hopefully, literally) to place many bets at a time using the system to eliminate the variance of a small sample size.
So, here it is for quick reference, condensed for ease of reading:
1. Need to look up: Each team’s AOPR, average points for, average points against.
2. Team A will be team with higher AOPR than their opponent Team B.
3. Divide A’s AOPR by B’s to get percent advantage.
4. Divide A’s and B’s average points for by the league median (71).
5. Take that number and increase A by the percent advantage (from step #3). Decrease B by the percent advantage (#3).
6. Multiply A’s outcome (from #5) with B’s average points against.
7. Multiply B’s outcome (from #5) with A’s average points against.
8. Add 2 points to the home team.
9. Subtract 2 points from the away team.
10. Always bet your basketball games at 5Dimes. Why you ask? Because they offer odds at -105, instead of the more expensive -110 that you’re paying your bookie! This will save you $5 for every $100 that you’re trying to win!
The wild ride that is the college basketball season turns a select few bettors wealthy each year but is the downfall of many more. It is far too easy to buy into the storylines and get caught up in the intuitive aspect of predicting games.
While understanding how the momentum and intangibles of games affect the outcomes is important, you will not get very far without analyzing data.
The smart NCAAB bettors understand that handicapping games involves some intuition but is grounded mainly in statistical data. The problem with pouring through numbers and keying in on the important ones is that it is very difficult to do.
What if there was a way to be handed the results someone else’s analysis, without having to do any of it yourself? If you do not believe this is possible, you are wrong. WagerBop is releasing our NCAAB betting systems to you for free! Simply sign up for a free account and you will have instant access all year long.
Hit the hardwood and make some bank with us! Scroll down to learn more.
WagerBop’s Systems
WagerBop created a large number of NCAAB betting systems years ago. We have been tracking them and hand picking only the most profitable and consistent plays, arriving at a list of the top-20. Each system has historical profitability data dating back to the 2004-2005 season. In other words, these systems have beenwinning money since Bush was president.
Ncaab Betting Model
Since 2004, our NCAAB systems have placed 5,919 bets, or 423 bets per season. Given a college basketball season is roughly five months long, this amounts to 3 bets every single day! You will never be starving for plays when you use WagerBop’s systems.
Historical Records
Here is a breakdown of each system’s performance dating back to the 2004-05 season:
Ncaa Basketball Handicapping Systems
System | W | L | T | Profit | ROI |
NCAAB System #1 | 116 | 70 | 6 | $3,815 | 19.87% |
NCAAB System #2 | 70 | 66 | 0 | $2,605 | 19.15% |
NCAAB System #3 | 75 | 49 | 3 | $2,212 | 17.42% |
NCAAB System #4 | 551 | 377 | 22 | $14,518 | 15.28% |
NCAAB System #5 | 110 | 48 | 1 | $5,437 | 34.19% |
NCAAB System #6 | 112 | 52 | 3 | $5,498 | 32.92% |
NCAAB System #7 | 148 | 105 | 4 | $3,547 | 13.80% |
NCAAB System #8 | 108 | 66 | 3 | $3,598 | 20.33% |
NCAAB System #9 | 166 | 119 | 7 | $3,944 | 13.51% |
NCAAB System #10 | 173 | 110 | 11 | $5,582 | 18.99% |
NCAAB System #11 | 77 | 49 | 5 | $2,433 | 18.57% |
NCAAB System #12 | 155 | 109 | 5 | $3,781 | 14.06% |
NCAAB System #13 | 379 | 282 | 18 | $7,804 | 11.49% |
NCAAB System #14 | 91 | 39 | 1 | $4,762 | 36.35% |
NCAAB System #15 | 27 | 17 | 2 | $781 | 16.98% |
NCAAB System #16 | 110 | 71 | 4 | $3,302 | 17.85% |
NCAAB System #17 | 190 | 128 | 8 | $5,153 | 15.81% |
NCAAB System #18 | 936 | 712 | 19 | $16,267 | 9.76% |
NCAAB System #19 | 532 | 374 | 21 | $11,129 | 12.01% |
NCAAB System #20 | 379 | 296 | 11 | $5,748 | 8.38% |
These 20 systems have generated an average of 15.59% return on investment and won $92,271 for those who bet $100 per game. These are astonishing win rates!
You are probably wondering: are these systems still usable or have the bookies adjusted? A look at the winnings by season can help us answer that question.
Year | W | L | T | Profit | ROI |
2017-18 | 441 | 360 | 19 | $5,119 | 6.24% |
2016-17 | 529 | 338 | 24 | $15,737 | 17.66% |
2015-16 | 375 | 258 | 9 | $9,458 | 14.73% |
2014-15 | 252 | 154 | 4 | $8,478 | 20.68% |
2013-14 | 202 | 131 | 9 | $6,455 | 18.87% |
2012-13 | 205 | 92 | 12 | $10,411 | 33.69% |
2011-12 | 188 | 126 | 7 | $5,340 | 16.64% |
2010-11 | 206 | 139 | 3 | $5,806 | 16.68% |
2009-10 | 201 | 109 | 9 | $8,255 | 25.88% |
2008-09 | 206 | 164 | 6 | $3,523 | 9.37% |
2007-08 | 175 | 119 | 4 | $4,716 | 15.83% |
2006-07 | 151 | 114 | 5 | $3,209 | 11.89% |
2005-06 | 162 | 110 | 4 | $4,771 | 17.29% |
2004-05 | 155 | 134 | 8 | $993 | 3.34% |
The numbers cannot lie. Our NCAAB systems have not had a losing season since their creation. If anything, they have become stronger plays over time. Gaining access to all 20 of these systems requires no money or effort on your part. Simply create a free membership on WagerBop and you are in!
As a teaser, we will now share ONE of our NCAAB betting systems with you right here!
1st Half Under with a High Total
Criteria for this strategy:
- Can be during the regular season or postseason
- Over/Under bets make up at least 42% of total bets on the game
- The visiting team cannot be favored by more than 2 points
- The over/under total is 70-88 points
- The home team has a winning percentage of 50% or lower
- Bet the under for the first half
Why This Strategy Works (Applying Intuition):
The second bullet point is the most important in this system. The public LOVES to bet overs. So, the fact that there is a lot of action on the total means that the line has likely shifted up a few points to account for those over bets.
70-88 points is a decent first-half total, but the combination of poor play from the home team (who normally shoots better early) and inflation from the public bets turns the under into a tremendous value.
How This Strategy has Performed Historically:
Year | Record | ROI | Profit |
2017-18 | 120-88-4 | 9.40% | $1,997 |
2016-17 | 172-125-4 | 10.50% | $3,149 |
2015-16 | 161-105-8 | 15.40% | $4,211 |
2014-15 | 21-15-1 | 11.50% | $426 |
2013-14 | 98-58-2 | 19.90% | $3,149 |
2012-13 | 21-21-4 | -4.30% | -$198 |
2011-12 | 24-22-1 | 0% | $1 |
2010-11 | 35-28-1 | 6.10% | $391 |
This system was not adopted until 2010, but it has become extremely profitable over the past 5 years after a slow start! As long as the public continues to inflate overs, we will continue to pounce on unders.
How To Access WagerBop’s NCAAB Betting Systems for Free
If your mind is racing thinking of how profitable this NCAAB season is going to be while playing this system, imagine what you could do with 20 equally profitable systems at your disposal.
College Basketball Betting Systems
Remember, all you need to do is sign up for a free membership on WagerBop and you will gain access to our entire database of NCAAB systems.